Net zero undermined by DfT

As over 40% of all UK’s emissions down to transport

Transport remains a huge problem when it comes to sector emissions in the UK, despite its full impact being underestimated. Since 1990, carbon emissions for domestic transport have only fallen by 13%, showing how woeful the Department for Transport’s (DfT) reaction to a climate emergency has been.

In 2023, the latest year for emissions data, domestic transport emissions were 111.8 MtCO2e, representing 29% of total domestic emissions (up from 16% in 1990). Of this, road transport was responsible for 89% of the emissions, making road transport responsible for 26% of all domestic emissions.

Including international aviation and shipping, total transport emissions rise to 151.3 MtCO2e. This makes transport responsible for 36% of the UK’s total emissions. However, this is only looking at what is emitted from the tailpipe.

If you include the carbon associated with transport but hidden in other sectors the picture is even more stark. These include emissions for vehicle manufacture (which are counted in ‘industry category’, rather than transport), new transport infrastructure (industry), petrol and diesel manufacture and supply (fuel supply), electricity for EVs (power generation), dodgy biofuels (included but understated) then the total carbon emissions associated with transport are even higher. This assumes that all these emissions are actually within the UK and not ‘lost’ overseas.

To give some context to the emissions being missed in transport, there were 2.5m new vehicles (1.9m new cars) registered in 2023, 13.5% of which were electric vehicles (EVs). Ricardo consultancy calculated in 2011 that a new petrol and diesel car produces 5.6t carbon during manufacture, whereas it is 8.8t for a new electric car (nearly half of which is due to battery construction). 

If this is applied to all new vehicles this gives a total of 15.1MtCO2 just from vehicle manufacture alone. It could be an underestimate as new vans and trucks included in this figure will likely have higher emissions, although emissions per vehicle may have reduced since then. Therefore the total carbon emissions from transport are likely to be well over 40% of the UK’s emissions.

This highlights the scale of the problem that transport is responsible for and how poor the DfT’s response has been. Given Labour’s focus in opposition on decarbonisation and net zero, you would have thought that it would be putting every effort into achieving emissions reductions across departments whilst in government. Yet it seems to be business as usual at the DfT supported by the Treasury.

While there has been a breakdown in the political consensus around climate change, as vested interests have managed to buy influence, that is not a reason to row back on action. In this situation, when net-zero is being questioned it is doubly important for the government to remain committed and consistent in its approach. Otherwise it ends up playing into the hands of those trying to disrupt the net-zero agenda.

Unfortunately, the government has fallen into the trap set by the right, with both the Treasury and the DfT actively undermining decarbonisation, and Ed Miliband’s efforts to reduce emissions looking increasingly isolated. 

After a promising start with the cancellation of a number of high carbon road schemes, since Louise Haigh left the government, things have gone backwards. The warning signs were there last year when the new Labour government decided to defend the Conservative roads policy in the courts (judgement is currently awaited on our challenge). This roads policy effectively allows climate change to be ignored in decision making as the bar for refusal is so ridiculously high, no road scheme or airport would ever reach it.

This has been followed by a slew of high-carbon road scheme approvals, the worst being the Lower Thames Crossing with its 6 million additional tonnes of carbon. Then there is the approval of Luton Airport expansion (against planning advice) and the minded to grant permission for Gatwick’s expansion, and the backing for a third runway at Heathrow airport. 

At a stroke, the DfT (and Treasury) has made a bad situation worse. Not only will there be substantial emissions from constructing these roads and airports but the extra traffic they will generate will have an even bigger impact and a huge negative impact on the economy. Meanwhile, spending vast sums on infrastructure that makes things worse means money is lost to make things better. In effect a triple whammy.

Labour needs to quickly rethink its stance on net-zero. It cannot carry on with its inconsistent approach which will undermine confidence in both the Labour Party and net-zero longer term. Why should anyone take the climate crisis seriously when it can be set aside on a whim or because it’s inconvenient, to enable business as usual? Labour might pride itself in planning for the long term, but by its actions it is planning for long term failure. The vulnerability of the economy will only be further exposed as climate change accelerates. 

Having spent all our money on infrastructure that makes things worse, while ignoring the poor state of the infrastructure we already have, we will be in no position to deal with the consequences. That and broken promises will be Labour’s legacy unless it can extricate itself from the mess it is creating. It will only do that when it starts to follow the science, stops being seduced by corporate schmoozing and stops chasing votes on the right. In the meantime, the DfT and Treasury are driving us backwards, approving developments in the transport sector that are fuelling climate change and economic breakdown.