The heat is on (the next Prime Minister)

During yet another June where temperature records were broken and people struggled to cope with temperatures more usual in southern Europe, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) released its latest progress report to Parliament. It shows that emissions for surface transport increased by 2.7% in 2025, with the sector now responsible for over 30% of all UK emissions, not including those it creates in manufacturing, construction, fuel supply and land use change. And it is road transport that is responsible for the vast majority of these.

Things are only getting hotter

Worryingly, the CCC notes that overall the UK is not on track to meet the targets agreed post Paris (our Nationally Determined Contribution) and that meeting the 6th carbon budget is not assured. That means that we’re not likely to keep temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius and if we don’t start taking urgent action we won’t be able to stay under a 2 degree rise. That will make what we’ve just experienced feel like a mild Spring day.

Stop making things worse

What is frustrating is that we have been flagging for years now how consecutive governments have blatantly refused to stop pouring cash into high carbon infrastructure. These include white elephant schemes like the Lower Thames Crossing ‘smart’ motorway, which alone will increase carbon emissions by 6 million tonnes and swamp the south east with more traffic and congestion. Or the A38 Derby Junctions which will see thousands of trees cut down, reducing cooling and making it harder to adapt to a harsher climate.

The other side effect of this roads addiction is that it starves solutions, such as the Ely Junctions rail scheme, of the cash they need to make things better.

A blind spot on transport

Unfortunately the CCC has a blind spot on transport and is at risk of sounding like a broken record when it bemoans any lack of progress on electrification. We are clearly off track both on transport and overall emissions, and electrification cannot happen quickly enough, yet the CCC lacks conviction about the role modal shift can play, not just in emissions reductions but also creating a fairer transition, and in helping us adapt to climate change more easily.

All it can suggest is that “the Government could also consider more steps to encourage modal shift…, which would reduce emissions and demand for fossil fuels.” It sounds rather weak and not in line with the emergency we are facing and the urgency of action required. It also ignores the role that modal shift can play in enabling us to adapt to climate change. Fewer cars on our streets means more space for street swales and trees to cope with extremes in rain and temperature. Given all this, we were hoping for something much stronger from the CCC.

Claims that transport is just one sector and the CCC has to provide a balance of advice across the whole economy (and can’t go into too much detail on each) doesn’t cut much ice when surface transport is likely responsible for well over a third of all UK emissions.

The good news

The good news is that there is still a majority in Parliament who believe strongly in taking climate action – mirroring the majority of the population. Last week, MPs approved the 7th carbon budget (2038 – 2042) but this won’t count for much unless they and the government can get to grips with reducing emissions quickly enough. That’s before considering what our out-of-date electoral system might produce at the next general election.

The challenge

Regardless of all these issues, our next Prime Minister will need to get a grip, and quickly, on transport emissions. Do this right with modal shift at the heart of any new policy and not only will it reduce emissions more quickly and help with climate adaptation, it will also be fairer, deliver more affordable transport choices, increase happiness and well-being, and reduce pressure on the NHS, just for starters. What is clear, with June breaking temperature records yet again, we cannot put off taking urgent action any longer.